Individual Consultant to conduct budget analysis and develop a budget brief for the social protection sector (Open to Nationals and Internationals)

• Country: Male, Maldives
• No of vacancies: N/A
  
• Salary: N/A 
• Organization: UNICEF
• Gender: Both 
• Deadline: 2023-12-31

Scope of work and methodology

Budget analysis and briefs will require budget data from national and international sources (for comparisons) as well as information on the performance of the Social Protection Sector, including at the sub-national level. Based on country context and data availability, the structure and content of the briefs might vary. However, the following scope and structure is proposed in line with the overall objective stated above and in accordance with UNICEF guidelines and existing country office examples:

1. Sector Definition and Overview: Government’s definition of the social protection sector (sector bodies and budgets), and overview of key policy and/or strategy documents (targets) and recent sector performance and contribution to SDGs. Focus on institutions that have public budget allocations in line with official functional classification of the budget law.
2. Sector Spending Trends (overall): Size and priority of the sector, spending changes, spending against commitments, spending compared to other countries. This analysis should consider changes in nominal terms, real terms, as a percentage of total government spending and Gross Domestic Product.
3. Composition of Sector Spending: including by ministries and institutions/Atoll, by programmes and by the type of spending (recurrent and capital).
4. Budget Credibility and Execution: the relationship between budget allocations and actual expenditures and the capacity of the social protection sector to spend available funds.
5. Equity of public spending and Contribution to SDGs: is spending prioritizing the most disadvantaged persons/children and achieving results for all persons/children? (Disparities based on regions/decentralization, disparities based on poverty level with focus on vulnerable groups, gender dimensions, and persons with disabilities). Where relevant, consideration should be given to the relationship between regional/atoll sectoral outcomes and per-capita spending.
6. Financing issues:

1. 1. Source of Spending: e.g., by government, donors, internally generated funds, and how this has changed over time, and what the implications are for sustainability of sector funding. Where relevant, this should include an analysis of private household (i.e., out-of-pocket) expenditures, harnessing available research and evidence.
   2. Wider financing issues: Consideration should be given to fiscal space more broadly, and whether there is scope to: (a) increase fiscal space, perhaps through increase government revenues at the aggregate or sectoral level and drawing comparisons to comparator countries; (b) increase aid or household financing contributions, or indeed whether the government should be seeking to replace donor funding for greater accountability and sustainability of funding; (c) any additional innovative financing options as relevant.
2. Key advocacy messages and recommendations: The budget brief will provide key recommendations, which should be specific, achievable, and time-bound (or at the very least, indicative of short-, medium- and/or long-term goals). In consultation with the UNICEF team, the consultant will finally produce a short summary of key advocacy messages (2-3 pages) and will facilitate an impact action plan workshop[1] with the UNICEF team, producing an impact action plan for the team to take forward.

Deliverables

Work Plan and Inception report (by last week of January 2024): The inception report need to cover the following: (a) Provide brief overview of Maldives public finance situation and recent updates related to the budgeting environment and the overall macroeconomic situation in relation to the global and national changes; (b) provide understanding of the task, proposed methodology and proposed outline of budget briefs, including proposed data collection of externally available data, and identification / specification of any further data that may be requested from government stakeholders to supplement analysis; (c) reflect on experiences and best practices from other countries. This phase can be supported by meetings with UNICEF’s internal section stakeholders, and with government stakeholders, as needed. The UNICEF contract supervisor will support with coordination of these meetings.

Development of draft analysis and budget briefs for the social protection sector (by the end of February 2024): Based on review of public finance data and consultations with UNICEF stakeholders and government agencies, including the Atolls, in line with objective and scope above. The UNICEF contract supervisor and Social Policy team will continually support by coordinating meetings with relevant internal and external stakeholders.

Final Budget analysis and brief (by February 2024): Submission of final version of the case based on technical feedback from UNICEF and the Ministry of Finance/National Social Protection Agency and the validation meetings. Validation meetings to involve different government ministries and Atolls to discuss and verify findings.

Presentation of analysis and briefs and advocacy (by March 2024): Delivering presentation of the case with key messages and recommendations. This is to include an advocacy meeting with Ministry of Finance and other relevant ministries, and other stakeholders. Briefs to be jointly developed and published with the Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Social and Family Development and National Social Protection Agency.

Final report (by the end of March 2024): Submitted compiling all tools, data, analysis, and deliverables. Final report to include a short Budget Brief Impact Statement that describes in detail how the information will be transformed into action and influence.

The assignment to be carried out between January 2024 and March 2024 for three months. Tentative schedule is as follows, payment schedule is provided below which is according to the deliverables below, upon receiving the following deliverables, the payments in following the below schedule will be made:

Travel: The contract will have two trips, one to finalize and present the inception report and one for validation and presentation of findings to UNICEF team and Government Authorities.

Quality Assurance:

UNICEF will only make payments based on approval of specific deliverables as listed in this TOR. A technical review committee will be established to oversee, quality assure and sign off the deliverables.

Duty station: Male’, Maldives

Duration of the contract: 3 Months

Supervisor/reporting line: This contract will be supervised by the Social Policy Specialist along with strategic guidance from the Country Office Deputy Representative, and the public finance consultant in the Regional Office for South Asia.

Section/Programme: Social Policy Section

Qualifications or specialized knowledge and/or experience required:

This contract will be awarded to an individual not sponsored by an institution. International or national Consultant must have a minimum of eight years of experience working on social sector finance and budget analysis.

The key qualifications include:

• At least eight years of professional experience in budget analysis and briefs, review exercises, with evidence of understanding global standards, theories, models, and methods related to analysis and research.
• Proven experience in designing, leading, and conducting budget analysis that involves an analysis on capacity building/programme/project.
• Advocacy and social engagement skills necessary for dealing with technical experts, implementing government partners, and NGO and political leaders that will be consulted.
• Excellent written and oral communication skills in English required.

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